Economic and Strategy Viewpoint - Q2 2024

Revisions to our forecasts mean that we now expect global GDP growth of 2.8% both this year and next, up from our previous projection for growth of 2.6% this year and 2.7% in 2025. That leaves us above consensus and means that we expect most major economies to beat expectations over the next eighteen months. Decent growth should also support a continued recovery in the global manufacturing cycle. However, inflation is also set to be a bit higher at 3.1% this year, due in large part to upside surprises from incoming data in the developed markets, before subsiding to a below consensus 2.4% in 2025.