Chinese staatsobligaties kunnen een oplossing bieden voor het geringe rendement van schatkistpapier in ontwikkelde landen.
Door de opname van China aan de FTSE World Government Bond Index in oktober dit jaar wordt het voor buitenlandse beleggers ook steeds meer vanzelfsprekend om te investeren in de Chinese obligatiemarkt.
Binnen traditionele vastrentende strategieën is rendement momenteel erg lastig te vinden. De rentes op staatsobligaties in ontwikkelde landen zijn het afgelopen jaar sterk gedaald. In de hunt for yield zijn onshore Chinese staatsobligaties een mogelijk verfrissend alternatief; het rendement op Chinees schatkistpapier met een looptijd van tien jaar ligt boven de 3%, terwijl de volatiliteit het afgelopen jaar relatief laag was.
De beleggingskans springt extra in het oog gelet op de recente trend in rendementsverschillen tussen China en andere belangrijke obligatiemarkten. Eind 2019 lag de Chinese tienjaarsrente 121 basispunten hoger dan de Amerikaanse rente. In september 2020 was dat verschil tot 246 basispunten opgelopen. ‘Rendement is de hoofdreden van onze klanten om te beleggen in Chinese staatsobligaties’, zegt Peter Thompson, hoofd van de Europese ETF-tak van Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM). ‘Een tweede belangrijke reden is diversificatie, de lagere correlatie van de Chinese obligatiemarkt met andere belangrijke vastrentende markten.’
China heeft na de Verenigde Staten de grootste obligatiemarkt in de wereld. Toch bezitten buitenlandse beleggers maar een klein percentage van de uitstaande Chinese staatsobligaties.
Dat aandeel zal stijgen nu er steeds meer ‘China’ wordt opgenomen in bekende, wereldwijde obligatie-indices, zegt Thompson. ‘Dat proces kreeg momentum in april 2019, met de opname van China in de Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index, in februari 2020 gevolgd door de toevoeging van een tranche China aan de JP Morgan EMBI Global Index.’
Het belangrijkste hoofdstuk van deze ontwikkeling moet echter nog worden geschreven, zegt Thompson. Chinese staatsobligaties worden in oktober 2021 toegevoegd aan de FTSE World Government Bond Index (FTSE WGBI), een grotendeels ontwikkelde marktindex. ‘De instroom in Chinese staatsobligaties uit passieve strategieën, die de FTSE WGBI volgen, wordt geraamd op 120 tot 150 miljard dollar. Dat bedrag is net zo groot als de passieve kapitaalstromen naar Chinese staatsobligaties, die de Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond en JP Morgan EMBI Global Index eerder voor rekening namen na de opname van China. En naar verwachting zullen actieve beleggers ook meer gaan alloceren naar deze asset class.’
Thomspon vervolgt: ‘Beleggers weten zelden wat er precies zal gaan gebeuren. De toevoeging van China aan de FTSE WGBI index is een zeldzame kans om potentieel te profiteren van de toekomstige kapitaalstromen naar deze beleggingscategorie.’
Behalve rendement, diversificatievoordelen en de opname van China in steeds meer obligatie-indices is er nog een reden waarom Chinese staatsobligaties attractief kunnen zijn, vervolgt Thomspon. ‘De Chinese munt, de renminbi, wordt door veel analisten, waaronder ook die van Goldman Sachs, beschouwd als ondergewaardeerd. Het is niet gek om te veronderstellen dat de renminbi een prominentere plek zal krijgen in de wereldeconomie. Het debat daarover is gaande. Veel beleggers nemen dit ook mee in hun allocatie-overwegingen.’
Goldman Sachs Asset Management is pas sinds 2019 actief als ETF-aanbieder in Europa, maar met het nodige succes. Het onderscheidende vermogen zit onder meer in het ‘verpakken’ van bestaande, actieve aandelenstrategieën naar zogeheten ActiveBeta ETF’s, die tot doel hebben beter te presteren dan de markt. ‘Enkele beleggingsstrategieën die wij in het verleden hebben ontwikkeld als gesegregeerde mandaten voor institutionele klanten zijn versimpeld en/of geoptimaliseerd in de vorm van een ETF’, zegt Thomspon.
Bij de obligatie-ETF’s van GSAM is ‘Access’ het leidmotief, waarbij het doel is om te komen tot betere voor risico gecorrigeerde rendementen en op een simpele wijze exposure te bieden aan specifieke delen van de obligatiemarkt. Als een van ‘s werelds grootse obligatiebeleggers kan GSAM daarbij terugvallen op een schat aan kennis en ervaring. De eerste (eind 2019) in Europa gelanceerde vastrentende ETF biedt bootstelling aan de Chinese onshore markt voor overheidsobligaties. ‘Deze ETF is geboren vanuit de wens van onze klanten om op een simpele manier belegd te zijn in Chinese staatsobligaties’, verklaart Thomspon.
Uitgedrukt in vermogen onder beheer is deze Goldman Sachs Access China Government Bond UCITS ETF uitgegroeid tot de op een na grootste Chinese staatsobligatie-ETF, die de Europese belegger ter beschikking staat. Hoe past deze ETF in de beleggingsportefeuille? ‘Dat is een zeer interessante vraag’, zegt Thompson. ‘Na opname in de FTSE WGBI Index maken Chinese staatsobligaties onderdeel uit van de drie belangrijkste obligatie-indices in de wereld. Is China daarmee mainstream geworden? Een ding is zeker: of het nu gaat over obligaties, aandelen of de renminbi, China is te groot om te negeren. Je moet als belegger een opinie vormen.’
FOR INSTITUTIONAL OR FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES USE ONLY - NOT FOR USE AND/OR DISTRIBUTION TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC
This material is provided at your request solely for your use.
This material is provided at your request for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
This document has been issued by Goldman Sachs International, authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority.
The ETFs mentioned are open-ended Index Tracking Sub-Funds of Goldman Sachs ETF ICAV which is an umbrella fund constituted as an Irish Collective Asset-management Vehicle under the laws of Ireland with segregated liability between sub-funds and authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland pursuant to the European Communities (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations 2011 (as amended)).
The UCITS ETF will publicly disclose its complete holdings on a daily basis. Details of the UCITS ETF’s holdings and full disclosure policy are available at www.gsam.com. The indicative net asset values (iNAVs) are disseminated and are displayed on major market data vendor terminals, including Bloomberg and Reuters.
Offering Documents
This material is provided at your request for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation in any jurisdiction in which such a solicitation is unlawful or to any person to whom it is unlawful. It only contains selected information with regards to the fund and does not constitute an offer to buy shares in the fund. Prior to an investment, prospective investors should carefully read the latest Key Investor Information Document (KIID) as well as the offering documentation, including but not limited to the fund’s prospectus which contains inter alia a comprehensive disclosure of applicable risks. The relevant articles of association, prospectus, supplement, KIID and latest annual/semi-annual report are available free of charge from the fund’s paying and information agent and/or from your financial adviser. Investors should be aware that the price of Shares may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back any of the amount invested. The difference at any one time between the subscription and redemption price of Shares means that an investment in any Sub-Fund should be viewed as long term.
Distribution of the Fund
The fund may not have been registered or will not be registered for public distribution in a number of jurisdictions (including but not limited to any Latin American, African or Asian countries). Therefore, the fund must not be marketed or offered in or to residents of any such jurisdictions unless such marketing or offering is made in compliance with applicable exemptions for the private placement of collective investment schemes and other applicable jurisdictional rules and regulations.
Investment Advice and Potential Loss
Financial advisers generally suggest a diversified portfolio of investments. The fund described herein does not represent a diversified investment by itself. This material must not be construed as investment or tax advice. Prospective investors should consult their financial and tax adviser before investing in order to determine whether an investment would be suitable for them. An investor should only invest if he/she has the necessary financial resources to bear a complete loss of this investment.
Investment Not Insured
Investment into the fund is not insured or guaranteed by any Government agency, including the Federal Deposit Insurance Company, and is not the same as placing funds on deposit with a bank or deposit-taking company.
THIS MATERIAL DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR SOLICITATION IN ANY JURISDICTION WHERE OR TO ANY PERSON TO WHOM IT WOULD BE UNAUTHORIZED OR UNLAWFUL TO DO SO.
Prospective investors should inform themselves as to any applicable legal requirements and taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile which might be relevant.
This material is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. This material is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations, and makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the manner in which any client's account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client's investment objectives.
This material is provided at your request for informational purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
Capital is at risk.
There is no guarantee that objectives will be met.
Diversification does not protect an investor from market risk and does not ensure a profit.
The economic and market forecasts presented herein are for informational purposes as of the date of this presentation. There can be no assurance that the forecasts will be achieved. Please see additional disclosures at the end of this presentation.
Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect a series of assumptions and judgments as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts do not take into account the specific investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. These forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, these forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. These forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these forecasts. Case studies and examples are for illustrative purposes only.
The "Low Volatility" factor tilts towards equities that exhibit a lower volatility relative to other equities, however, equity as an asset class is of higher risk and may exhibit high volatility.
Traditional ETFs refer to market-cap weighted strategies designed to track a given market or index.
Return on Equity (ROE) is the amount of net income as a percentage of shareholders equity.
Smart beta" refers to quantitative index-based strategies.
Value - A composite signal of three valuation ratios, namely free cash flow-to-price (or earnings when cash flow is unavailable), book value-to-price, and sales-to-price, that incorporates our proprietary Industry Neutralization Technique.
Momentum - The t-statistic of the alpha term from a market regression of daily returns over the trailing 11-month period lagged one month.
Volatility - Prior 12-month standard deviation of daily total returns, that uses a starting universe containing equal-weighted stocks within industry groups.
Quality - Gross profit divided by total assets.
ActiveBeta® U.S. Large Cap Equity Index - An index derived from an equally weighted combination of Volatility, Quality, Momentum, and Value indices.
Neutralisation Technique - neutralizes industry group exposures by adjusting all securities within an industry group equally to closely match the benchmark weight of the industry.
The "Low Volatility" factor tilts towards equities that exhibit a lower volatility relative to other equities, however, equity as an asset class is of higher risk and may exhibit high volatility.
Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. Share class performance is shown based on the NAV (net asset value) of the Share class with income (gross) reinvested including actual ongoing charges excluding any entry and exit fees. Performance is shown based on the NAV which may not be the same as the market price of the ETF. Individual shareholders may realise returns that are different to the NAV based returns. Indices do not include fees or operating expenses and you cannot invest in them. The benchmark is for comparative purposes only unless specifically referenced in the Sub-Funds' Investment Objective and Policy. Dividend income shown is gross of any applicable tax.
ActiveBeta® is a registered trademark of GSAM.
As a UCITS ETF, a Sub-Fund's Shares purchased on the Secondary Market cannot usually be sold directly back to the Sub-Fund by investors who are not Authorised Participants. Generally, investors who are not Authorised Participants must buy and sell shares on a Secondary Market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a stockbroker) and may incur fees and additional taxes in doing so. In addition, as the market price at which the Shares are traded on the Secondary Market may differ from the Net Asset Value per Share, investors may pay more than the then current Net Asset Value when buying shares and may receive less than the current Net Asset Value when selling them.
In the European Union, this material has been approved by Goldman Sachs Asset Management Fund Services Limited, which is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.
This financial promotion is provided by Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE
This material is a financial promotion disseminated by Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, including through its authorised branches ("GSBE"). GSBE is a credit institution incorporated in Germany and, within the Single Supervisory Mechanism established between those Member States of the European Union whose official currency is the Euro, subject to direct prudential supervision by the European Central Bank and in other respects supervised by German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufischt, BaFin) and Deutsche Bundesbank.
Confidentiality
No part of this material may, without GSAM’s prior written consent, be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form, by any means, or (ii) distributed to any person that is not an employee, officer, director, or authorized agent of the recipient.
© 2021 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. 234789-OTU-1377680
