Antwoord op de belangrijkste vragen over de Chinese economie en de beleggingsvooruitzichten voor de aandelen- en obligatiemarkt.
Where are we in China’s recovery process and what do the current indicators imply in terms of the outlook of the Chinese economy and the remainder of 2020 and beyond?
The shock to growth due to COVID-19 is unprecedented and the recovery which is underway is in stages and segmented. China’s economy contracted nearly 7% YOY in the first quarter. In comparison, China's economy slowed during the global financial crisis (GFC) by 5 percentage points to a low of 6% over a 12-month period. Factories are reopening and capacity utilization is picking up, most large industrial firms are back at work nationwide and 75-80% of SME's have restored operations. But the services sector is lagging - while supermarkets and malls are open, resumption ratios across catering and restaurants, as well as hotel occupancy, are lower. Consumption is on the mend but there is caution due to concerns around employment and income growth. Exports will be the last to recover as external demand for China will be negatively impacted due to the global fallout of the coronavirus. IMF projects Chinese growth at 1.2% in 2020 and we are predicting -1 to 1% in 2020. There will be a strong recovery for 2021.
Our investment professionals also answer the following questions:
- What has been the policy response to try and manage the negative impact and uncertainty, and how has this differed from previous crises?
- What long-term impact will the coronavirus have on China’s macro economy?
- How do you think about the equity investment opportunity set in China in the next 3-5 years?
- What is the outlook for the Chinese corporate bond market this year?